Research

Journal Articles

Year Publication Details
2024 Social distancing and COVID-19 under violence: Evidence from Colombia”. Journal of Development Economics. (With Diego Martin) Online Appendix
2023 Short- and long-run labor market adjustment to import competition”. Review of International Economics. (With Juan Blyde, Matias Busso and Kyunglin Park)
2022 Selective Civilian Targeting: The Unintended Consequences of Partial Peace”. Quarterly Journal of Political Science. (With Mounu Prem, Andres Rivera and Juan Vargas)
2020 The perils of top-down state building: Evidence from Colombia’s False Positives”. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, vol. 16(3), pp. 43-46. (With Daron Acemoglu, Leopoldo Fergusson, James Robinson and Juan Vargas)
2017 Improving access to preventive maternal health care using reminders: Experimental evidence from Guatemala”, Economic Letters, vol. 161, pp. 43-46. (With Matias Busso and Dario Salcedo)
2017 The effects of financial aid and returns information in selective and less selective schools: Experimental evidence from Chile”. Labour Economics, Vol. 45, pp. 79-91. (With Matias Busso, Taryn Dinkelman and Claudia Martínez)
2017 Books or laptops? The effect of shifting from printed to digital delivery of educational content on learning”. Economics of Education Review, vol. 61, pp. 162-173. (With Rosangela Bando, Francisco Gallego and Paul J. Gertler)
2014 Insecurity or Perception of Insecurity? Urban Crime and Dissatisfaction with Life: Evidence from the Case of Bogotá” . Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, Vol. 20(1), pp. 169-208.

Working Papers

YearPublication Details
"Something Biased This Way Comes: The Effect of Media on House Elections in the US" (With Haaris Mateen)
Abstract

We provide novel evidence on the effect of a conservative-biased local TV station operator on the ideologies of local election candidates in the US. We document an ideological shift to more conservatism for the winner in House of Representatives elections, which strengthens over time. This is driven by a higher probability of Republicans winning but also a shift to more conservatism for both Republican and Democratic candidates, even though Democratic candidates in the primaries may become more liberal on average. We show that Republican candidates receive increased donations after the entry of the local TV station operator.

"Downwind of the Bus Lane: Transit Pollution and Academic Performance" (With Diego Martin and Dario Salcedo)
Abstract

We estimate the effect of air pollution from Bogotá's Bus Rapid Transit system on high school test scores. Using wind direction interacted with bus route intensity as an instrument, we find that schools more frequently downwind of BRT corridors score significantly lower in math and global exams. The instrumental variable estimates imply that an additional μg/m³ of PM2.5 reduces math scores by 0.10 standard deviations and global scores by 0.09 standard deviations, with no effect on language. NOx and PM10 show similar negative effects. Girls and students from higher-income households experience larger declines. A georeferenced household survey provides suggestive evidence that respiratory disease mediates the pollution-achievement relationship. These results reveal a human capital cost of diesel-powered transit and underscore the importance of cleaner fuel technologies in urban transportation policy.

"Banking Local: Media Slant, Erosion of Trust, and Financial Decisions" (With Elizabeth Berger and Haaris Mateen)
Abstract

We study the effect of media slant on household banking decisions. We use the staggered expansion of a local TV news station operator with a slant towards national events with emphasis on negative interpretations. We find that depositors shift deposits from national to local banks in areas exposed to the news media shock. Likewise, borrowers, especially low-income borrowers, shift their borrowing activity. Banks do not engage in credit rationing, change loan and deposit rates to attract consumers, or alter branching networks. Our evidence suggests that an erosion in trust drives these results. In sum, media slant alters household financial decision making and these decisions have re-sortative, and perhaps negative, welfare consequences.

"The (unintended?) effects of US military training during the Cold War in Latin America" (With Diego Martin)
Abstract

Why would a military training program designed to strengthen allied armies produce officers who targeted civilians rather than guerrillas? We study the School of the Americas (SOA), which trained over 83,000 Latin American military personnel between 1946 and 1991. We argue that SOA training created an agency wedge: SOA graduates used their enhanced capabilities to repress civilians rather than to combat guerrillas, generating repression that the sending government did not intend. Using cross-country panel data, we show that SOA graduates eroded democratic quality by suppressing civil society. Using within-country variation in Argentina and Colombia, we show that SOA commanders increased forced disappearances with no advantage against insurgent groups. Using Latinobarometer surveys, we show that exposed cohorts developed stronger pro-democratic preferences and lower trust in the armed forces. The results document a causal chain from foreign military training to repression to preference formation.

"An Empire Lost: Spanish Industry and The Effect of Colonial Markets and Trade on Innovation"
Abstract

This paper examines the impact of international market access on the trajectory of technical change using a historical trade shock that reshaped the Spanish textile industry in the late 19th century. Exploiting the effects of a trade policy change in 1891 that raised out-of-the-empire tariffs and forced the purchase of manufactured cotton goods from the metropole's producers by its colonies, I empirically document a significant increase in cotton textile innovation relative to other fabrics. Moreover, I demonstrate the presence of path dependence in innovation, as the disparity in textile innovation between cotton and other fabrics persisted even after the colonies' independence in 1898. Further analysis reveals that the relative prices of cotton fabrics and benefits accrued by cotton firms played a crucial role in stimulating cotton innovation. These results suggest that the innovation observed was not limited to the mere adoption of foreign technology but instead reflected local conditions in shaping incentives for local innovators to develop technologies tailored to specific local requirements.

"The Environmental Impact of Civil Conflict: The Deforestation Effect of Paramilitary Expansion in Colombia" (With Leopoldo Fergusson and Juan Vargas)
Abstract

[Abstract coming soon]

Work in Progress

Year Details
  Political Polarization and Inventor Productivity: Evidence from Local Television Markets in the US (With Haaris Mateen and Po-Hsuan Hsu)
  Mass Deportations, Economic Networks and Firm Productivity in Guatemala (With Carlos Schmidt-Padilla)

Book Chapters

Year Details
2015 “Facts and Determinants of Female Labor Supply in Latin America”, (with Matias Busso). In Bridging gender gaps? The rise and deceleration of female labor force participation in Latin America, Leonardo Gasparini and Mariana Marchioni (Eds).